March 28, 2008

stochastic behaviour of the US elections

Generation of probabilities for different scenarios, where scenarios are elections in different states has been and is still a point of contention for the DP primaries in the search algorithm for the US president in 2008. Each day that goes by Obama and Clinton hope to maximize the electral votes in those candidate states. When this is achieved for a particular candidate , say Obama, then we say the actual probability was higher than for the other candidate. Many times before the actual probability is known, the media will have developed theirs through carrying out surveys, but of course depending […]