Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are UN millennium declaration of September 2000 as a way to monitor progress in the developing countries in the eight key MDGs. Uganda, is signatory to the UN, hence one of the countries where MDGs are being assessed. However, despite the close to 17 years since its inception, MDGs are little known of in the upcountry districts of Uganda, making it very difficult to implement and monitor in the country as a whole. Efforts are being made by the UNDP Uganda in conjunction with the MDG Country Team coordinated by office of the Prime Minister to assist sensitize the public including policy makers about MDGs, their implementation and the monitoring process.

On this background, therefore, we present multinomial logistic models to monitor MDGs, taking a case study of the sixth MDG of combating major diseases, particularly focusing on HIV/AIDS in one of the remotest districts of Uganda called Kapchorwa district. The period of study was three years and the survey was based on household as a source of information. Two sub counties were used, thus Kaptanya and Binyiny sub counties because these two sub counties are where SNV has had an intervention for the three years under study beginning from the year 2005.

With only about seven years left to the target year 2015, new tools such as the multinomial logistic models developed and presented in this paper become important conjugates in determining whether countries are on target to achieve the MDGs. This then acts as a pre-cursor to what resources could be required as an input so that the set targets are met in the specified period. Click to download a presentation of the paper presented at the first Africa conference of young statisticians 2008, Pretoria South Africa. You are welcome to leave a contribution or comment…

Keywords

MDG, HIV/AIDS, Multinomial Logistic Model, Monitoring